November DAT Truckload Volume Index shows a stronger than usual performance

The November edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which was recently issued by DAT Freight & Analytics, showed a solid post-Thanksgiving bump in truckload freight volumes compared to previous Novembers.  

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, load-to-truck ratios, and rates, for the month of November, including:

• the van TVI was down 9.0% compared to October, at 232, and down 3.7% annually;
• the reefer TVI was down 3.5% compared to October, at 196 and up 0.5% annually;
• the flatbed TVI was down 11.1% compared to October, at 232, and up 3% annually;
• the DAT broker-to-carrier benchmark spot van rate fell $0.02, from October to November, to $2.07 per mile, for its fifth decrease in the last 10 months, with the reefer rate up $0.03, to $2.49 per mile, and the flatbed rate up $0.05, to $2.43 per mile;
• linehaul rates, which DAT said subtract an amount equal to a fuel surcharge, saw gains after five months of declines, with the van line-haul rate up $0.02 from October, to $1.57 per mile, reefer up $0.07, to $1.94 per mile, and flatbed unchanged at $1.83 (DAT observed that November’s rates topped November 2019 prior to the pandemic-driven supply chain disruptions, with rates, at that time, for van, reefer, and flatbed, at $1.52, $1.85, and $1.74, respectively);
• the national average van load-to-truck ratio, at 2.1, flat compared to October, with the reefer ratio, at 3.2, topping October’s 2.9, and the flatbed ratio, at 5.5, below October’s 6.3, collectively representing the lowest levels going back to November 2015; and
• DAT’s benchmark rates for contracted van and reefer freight fell, for the third consecutive month, with DAT pointing to shippers seeing increased pricing power, as the November benchmark contract rate fell $0.03, for the third straight month, to $2.53 per mile, reefer down $0.03, to $2.94, and the flatbed rate up $0.04, to $3.17; and
• the gap between spot and contract van rates came in at $0.46, snapping a three-month stretch of $0.48, for its lowest level since March 2022, when it was the average broker-to-carrier spot rate was at $3.05 and the contract rate was at $3.26

“Thanksgiving and Black Friday were early in the month, which meant there was almost a full week of shipment activity after the holiday,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics, in a statement. “Businesses running leaner inventories compared to the last couple of years are taking advantage of lower transportation rates as they position goods ahead of peak retail shopping. For every 10 carriers that left the market in November, eight new ones came in. There’s been an acceleration of capacity out of the long-haul freight sector, where carriers are subject to spot-rate volatility and high diesel costs, and a shift back to other parts of the economy, like regional dedicated operations.”

In an interview with LM, Adamo explained there were a few major factors working in the direction of the market, including cost pressures coming down with diesel coming off of its summer highs. And he added that was reflected in the rate of carrier attrition numbers slowing down considerably in November, with December holding up pretty well.

“December is usually a bad month, because there is not a lot of addition and not a lot of people get into the market in December, as there is still the typical background attrition,” he said. “December is outperforming seasonally so far. It has also been a strong retail season with the one caveat being that the strong retail registered numbers don’t ‘one-for-one’ reflect because inventories were still high, with retailers a little bullish on the restocking. I think there was still a lot of backed-up inventory that got flushed through this, which means it did not need to get shipped, or at least not shipped through the whole supply chain. It may have been for some final mile stuff but not so much for the first and middle mile.”

Looking at December, Adamo said that leading into it was the post-Thanksgiving bump, where things are extremely busy, coupled with an attempt to taper off, followed by a mid-month ramp-up.

“In transportation and logistics, the week before the actual week before Christmas can be very slow,” he said. “With Christmas falling on a Monday, the week before will be crazy busy for freight activity.”